Ageev A.I., Glaz'ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https: ...

Abstract

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today's realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment. Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategyof industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, includingthrough the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economicdevelopment of Russia. However, in today's realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the taskof forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and arecharacterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions,when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the availablemodels can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.