Ryazantsev S. V., Lukyanets A. S., Moiseeva E. M. Labor resources and employment. In: Third Assessment Report on Climate Changes and Their Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation ...

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Abstract

Climate change, as well as the need for a policy aimed at reducing risks and mitigating its consequences, is likely to begin to have a significant negative impact on the labor market and employment in Russia in the near future (by 2030). First, today there are losses of working hours caused by natural disasters. In the period 2008–2015 they exceeded 1.5 labor years per person for each year. Under the influence of global climate change, the frequency and scale of natural hazards will only increase. Secondly, extreme weather conditions, mainly heat waves, markedly reduce the productivity of labor, especially outdoor physical labor, but also indoor work, including mental work. Subject to the implementation of a favorable scenario of climate change and successful adaptation to it, the decrease in labor productivity caused by abnormally high temperatures in Russia will be negligible (0.01% of the total number of working hours in the country by 2030). However, under the implementation of pessimistic scenarios climate change, these losses will increase. In addition, a decrease in labor productivity can be caused not only by heat stress, but also by diseases, which will become more frequent under the influence of climate change. Epidemics, on the other hand, carry extremely high risks for the economy and society, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown. The economic damage from them can be ten times greater than the damage from natural disasters. Finally, the need to implement measures to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will lead to significant structural shifts in the Russian economy and, as a result, in the country's labor market.