Ryazantsev S.V., Bragin A.D., Afzali Mehdi, Arkhangelskiy V.N. Iran Demographic Development Trends. Nauchnoe obozrenie. Seriya 1. Jekonomika i parvо [Scientific Review. Series 1. Economics and Law]. 2020. Nо. 1-2. Р. 21-31. DOI: 10.26653 ...

Abstract

The relevance of this article is due to the increasing geopolitical role of Iran as a dominantplayer in the Middle East being under severe pressure from external sanctions. These conditions makeIran a good example for research on the performance of population policies. Taking into accountsanctions, decisions of the country's leadership in the demographic sphere are made under a largeburden of responsibility and are based on the idea, that population is the main resource for the furtherdevelopment of the state. This article presents an analysis of the trends in the demographicdevelopment of Iran after the Islamic Revolution for the period from 1979 to 2019, as well as considersthe current demographic policy of the Government of Iran. There are analyzed a structure of thepopulation by gender, age, ethnic, religious affiliation and features of population distribution in Iran.However, birth and death data testify to a natural population growth in the country, they reveal atendency for irrational population growth, especially in the first decade after the Islamic revolution. Thechange in the components of natural growth in Iran is caused by the repeated change in thedemographic policy from a sharp increase in the birth rate to its reduction and vice versa. Based on thedata from the Statistical Center of Iran, we state that Iranian society is becoming more and more similarin matters of marriage and divorce to the societies of economically developed countries. The totalnumber of divorces is increasing in the country and the average age of marriage is growing as well.Taking into account current plans of the Iranian leadership to increase the population, both with lifeexpectancy, it is obvious that the problem of aging population will increase in the country and willrequire additional costs from the state in the nearest future.