Ivanova A . E., Pletneva Yu.E., Siviplyasova S . Y., Sigareva E. P., Arkhangelskiy V. N . Is natural population growth in Russia possible in the next 10 years? Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics, taxes & law. 2021;14(2):32-43. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26794 ...

Abstract

The subject of the study is the components that determine the dynamics of natural population growth (birth rate, mortality and age-sex structure), and the possible prospects for their change in Russia in the next decade. The purpose of the workis to determine the possibilities of ensuring zero natural growth in 2030, the reserves for increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality, and the ways to implement them. The study revealed that achieving a balance of births and deaths is almost impossible in the 2020s, but gradually approaching such a balance, it is possible to reduce the natural decline of the population by 2030. However, this will require a significant increase in the total fertility rate (from 1.50 in 2019 to 1.90 in 2030) and the average life expectancy [from 73.3 years (both sexes) in 2019 to 79.9 in 2030]. The article concludes that there are reserves for achieving these indicators, or at least a significant approximation to them, but the possibilities for their implementation depend on the nature of the development of the socio-economic situation in the country, the measures taken in the social and demographic policy and in the field of healthcare. In terms of increasing the population, the main reserves lie in increasing the birth rate of first and second children, and in terms of increasing the life expectancy of the population, men have more opportunities than women. Adverse changes in the gender and age structure of the population will hinder the achievement of natural population growth: on the one hand, intensive aging, and on the other hand, a significant reduction in the population at the active reproductive age. Migration growth slightly improves the age composition of the Russian population, but in terms of the effects of this improvement on natural growth, its impact is insignificant.

Content (in russ)