Gulyaev S.B. Social forecasting and designing the strategy of demographic growth in Russia taking into account large families as a guarantee of national security of the country. Alma mater. 2024. No. 9. Pp. 71-80.

Abstract

The article analyzes the current demographic situation in Russia and projects its improvement taking into account large families.The novelty of this study, its analysis, conclusions and research are related to the focus on the practice of advanced, modern and successful interms of fertility and economy countries such as the USA.For the first time at the modern level considered the scheme “Garden Cities”, proposed back in the 19th century, but has become relevant inthe 21st.The article contains four parts. The logic of the presentation is as follows. First, the demographic development and demographic policy of Russiaare analyzed. Then the author's proposal on the state regulation of housing construction for large families in the form of “Agro-town” is considered.The article is written on the basis of federal laws and other normative legal acts, analysis of official statistics on demography.Many people are interested in when the demographic revival will occur; they are concerned about the problems associated with the birth rate,the reasons why it fluctuates, and the prospects for population reproduction. Modern society is in the era of universal demographic transformation,when, due to the explosive growth, the humanity inhabiting the planet radically changes the principle of its development and reverses, limitingits reproductive resources. This important event in the history of the planet manifests itself primarily in the dynamic change of the institution ofthe family and affects many aspects of family life in Russia. The main thing in this is that with the appearance of tools of labor man could findfood and build dwellings faster and, therefore, settled and multiplied faster. This statement exposes the problematics of this topic and reveals theanalysis of the article.The study provides a comparative analysis of the current production indicators of construction in Russia. The study analyzes the federal budgetexpenditures on the state program for the development of housing for large families in the country.The conclusion gives a forecast for the possible development of housing for large families in the “Agro-towns” of the new generation on theanalogy of the “Garden Cities” of the 19th century.