Antonov A.I., Karpova V.M. Comparative analysis of demographic forecasts: assessment of long-term trends for the world and Russia. Problems of forecasting. 2025. No. 2 (209). P. 180-191.

Abstract

The article presents a comparative analysis of forecasts of the world and Russian population dynamics up to 2100. The main sources of data are the UN forecasts (World Population Prospects 2019, 2022 and 2024), as well as forecasts of IHME, IIASA and Rosstat. A tendency towards a slowdown in world population growth is revealed in all forecast scenarios, with a high probability of reaching the peak value of the population by the end of the 21st century. A comparative analysis of key forecast scenarios is carried out, with an emphasis on the role of assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration in the formation of long-term demographic estimates. The analysis of demographic forecasts of Russia includes a critical assessment of the underlying hypotheses about fertility, mortality and migration in the context of current demographic trends and historical dynamics. It is shown that most forecasts are characterized by overestimated estimates of fertility and mortality, which makes the implementation of low and medium scenarios more likely, while high scenarios are unlikely to be achieved in the current demographic situation.