Moiseeva, Е.М. Push Factors of Population Migration in Russian Regions in Terms of Age Structure. Spatial Economics. 2025. Vol. 21. No. 2. Pp. 114-137. DOI 10.14530 ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: http://spatial-economics.com/en/archive/2025-2/1112 (дата обращения 30.09.2025)

Abstract

Migration is a major component of population dynamics including its composition. In entire macroregions of Russia, it has a greater impact on the demographic situation than the birth rate. In order to manage migration processes, it is necessary to understand the reasons that push certain population groups to change their place of residence. This article is devoted to the analysis of the so-called ʻpush factorsʼ of migration using econometric methods. Namely, regression models are estimated on panel data for 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the five-year period from 2019 to 2023. In particular, the hypothesis is tested that the same socio-economic and demographic characteristics of a region have different significance for population outflow depending on age, so the models are built separately for each of the five-year age groups from 0–4 to 80 years and older. The main conclusions are as follows. The relationship between the age structure and the intensity of migration is two-way. The population aged 30–40 years responds most rationally to the socio-economic situation in the region. Economic factors are most important for young people who are starting their professional careers and remain important for the middle-aged population. Low competition in the labor market is not attractive to young people, but it is a deterrent to the departure of older age groups. Cramped housing conditions push the population of all ages to migrate, but are most important for young people, who, however, are not yet able to make effective demand for real estate, so the high cost of housing does not act as a significant pushing factor for them. The state of the healthcare sector is of greater interest to the mature population. Opportunities to obtain an education largely determine migration at the ages of 15–19. Opportunities for cultural leisure reduce migration only among pensioners, while the development of transport infrastructure and especially the availability of good access to the Internet act as a deterrent for everyone. Among environmental indicators, families with children are the most sensitive to pollution levels, and harsh climate is a highly significant pushing factor at all ages but is most significant for pensioners.