Subbotin A.A., Tonkikh E.V. Demographic challenges to modern urban development (on the example of Moscow). Real Estate: economics, management. 2024. No. S4. Pp. 86-93. EDN MXFOID.

Текст статьи/выпуска на сайте журнала URL: https://n-eu.iasv.ru/index.php/neu/issue/view/33/43 (дата обращения 08.10.2025)

Abstract

Taking into account the size and structure of the population is essential for strategic urban planning and the harmonious development of the urban environment. Construction of residential and commercial real estate, spatial arrangement of workplaces, and the development of social and transport infrastructure should correspond to the needs and trends of population growth. Based on the analysis of official statistical data the study identifies the challenges of demographic development of Moscow that the capital will face until 2040: dependence of population growth on migration growth; population aging and growth of demographic burden; reduction in the birth rate; increase in the number of single households; growth of attractiveness of individual territories of Greater Moscow (territories that were transferred to Moscow in 2012); wave-like dynamics of population development and dependence of the adequacy of social infrastructure on the length of a generation. Despite the attractiveness of Greater Moscow, the target population indicator (1 million people), laid down in the General Plan of Moscow, has been achieved only by 70%; at the current growth rates, it is possible to achieve it by 2030. Based on the considered trends of Moscow and the expected dynamics of the three components of population movement (birth rate, mortality and migration), a demographic forecast in three versions (inertial, basic and target) was constructed using the cohort-component method, which takes into account the age and gender structure and substantiates the demand for preschool and school infrastructure facilities in the future. Recommendations were given regarding the consideration of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population in urban planning. Further research on this issue may be aimed at studying the demographic challenges of individual municipalities in Moscow.