Morgunov, E.V., Chernyavsky S.V., Rostovtsev A.I. Analysis of the dynamics of per capita gross domestic product by countries with differences in productivity for 1970–2021. Society and power. 2025. Vol. 22. No. 2. P. 92-111. EDN XFLRNX.

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Abstract

Introduction. The article analyses the dynamics using the example of per capita GDP in 218 countries around the world over the period 1970-2021, and on this basis identifies general trends in GDP growth and forecasts the dynamics of per capita GDP for four groups of countries around the world for the period up to 2025. The purpose of the study is to analyse dynamics using the example of per capita GDP over the period 1970-2021 which is aimed at identifying general trends in GDP growth and forecasting per capita GDP growth for four groups of countries worldwide for the period up to 2025. Methods. Classification, statistical analysis and regression modelling. Scientific novelty of the research. The novelty is provided by the results of the authors’ method of analysing per capita GDP data for countries around the world for the period 1970-2021, based on the proposed classification - their grouping based on the percentile method, with corresponding estimates of growth dynamics. Results. The study found that for countries with (very) high human potential (average GDP in 2021 24,500percapita),theaverageannualgrowthratein1970−2021was6.1−6.72,500 per capita), the average annual growth rate in 1970-2021 was 4.3-5.0%, and in 2021-2025 -2.0-3.4%. Conclusions. The study showes that while per capita GDP (compared to other countries) has ceased to be the main economic indicator of development for the world’s highly productive countries, for all other countries, especially those with critically low productivity, per capita GDP growth remains the most important task for their socio-economic development.

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