Dozhdikov, A.V. (2025). Russian cinema: Growth constraints and strategic directions. Nauka Televideniya—The Art and Science of Television, 21 (3), 197–247. https: ...

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Abstract

This study provides a systematic analysis of the developmental constraints facing the Russian film industry as an independent economic sector. An empirical analysis of data from 2004 to 2024 identifies a serious problem: the domestic film market is incapable of ensuring the industry’s self-sufficiency under its current parameters and financing and monetization models. For the industry to achieve sustainability, it would require an audience of 500 million people and 35–40 thousand screens; in 2024, Russia’s market reached only 125 million people and 6 thousand screens. This imbalance creates an audience “cannibalization” effect, whereby the overproduction of national films (up to 300 or more annually) in a limited market leads to excessive competition of project, depressing average attendance and box office performance indicators.This article proposes a multi-faceted approach to overcome these constraints, including: creating investment portfolios to diversify risk between the state and private investors; implementing artificial intelligence systems for box office forecasting and release strategy optimization; and developing cross-platform franchises within the creative industries to enable multiple monetization cycles. Modeling indicates that with a project forecasting accuracy of 90–95 %, stable industry profitability is achievable. The research addresses a critical methodological gap in cinema economics by proposing a systematic framework for managing film project portfolios within the unique conditions of the Russian market.