Rostovskaya T.K., Sitkovskiy A.M. and Gishkaeva L.N. Methodology and practice of demographic expertise based on the example of the regional program “Increasing Birth Rates in the Republic of Tuva for the Period 2023–2025”. New Research of Tuva, 2025, no. 4, pp. 233-253. (In Russ.). DOI: https: ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://nit.tuva.asia/nit/ru/article/view/1547 (дата обращения 13.01.2026)

Abstract

The article presents an evaluation of the authors’ original methodology for conducting demographic expertise of documents in the field of demographic policy. The authors tested this methodology using the regional program of the Republic of Tuva, “Increasing Birth Rates in the Republic of Tuva for the Period 2023-2025”, as an example. The methodological framework of the study comprises expert assessment methods, scenario forecasting, and the age-shifting method. Data preparation and processing were carried out using the Spectrum software (DemProj module). Data sources included normative legal acts, statistical materials from Rosstat, and findings from prior scientific research. At the first stage of applying the methodology, the authors assessed the document for compliance with current legislation, the completeness of the information provided, and consistency with contemporary scientific theories. At the second stage, two scenarios for the dynamics of the total fertility rate were modeled: a baseline scenario (without policy measures) and a target scenario (assuming implementation of program activities). Scenario-based population projections enabled the identification of demographic consequences resulting from the implementation of program activities. Two scenarios were considered: baseline (without program implementation) and target (with program implementation). The results demonstrate that the measures proposed by the program in Tuva could increase the birth rate by approximately 8-10% compared to the baseline trend, with the population rising by 20,000 by 2045 relative to the scenario without program measures. Furthermore, successful practices and problematic aspects of the program were identified, and expert recommendations for its improvement were provided. The study results highlight the significant potential of the proposed methodology as an effective analytical tool, enabling the minimization of risks associated with insufficiently substantiated managerial decisions.