Doholyan S.V., Vershinina M.A. Welfare of the Russian population: The structural conflict of fiscal stimulus and monetary restraint in the context of external and internal shocks. Problems of a market economy. 2025. No. 4. Pp. 31-39.

Abstract

The welfare of the population is a key goal of socio-economic policy, especially in the context of increasing internal and external shocks, which for Russia in the 2020s were a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, sanctions pressure, economic restructuring and growing geopolitical uncertainty. These factors increase income instability, poverty risks, and inequality. In this regard, a comprehensive analysis of welfare issues in unstable socio-economic and political conditions is of particular relevance. Goal. To conduct a critical analysis of the dynamics of welfare indicators in the adaptation period of 2020-2025, identify structural shifts in income sources and evaluate the effectiveness of social protection measures and macroeconomic regulation. Methodology. The study is based on a critical analysis of Rosstat data in recent years, in particular, the dynamics of three key indicators: real disposable income (RRR), the inflation rate and the Basic Poverty Line (BGB). A comparative method is used to assess structural changes in the composition of monetary incomes of the population. Results. The analysis showed that the declared nominal growth of the IDR (7.3% in 2024) was completely absorbed by inflation (9.52%), which led to a decrease in real purchasing power. The aggregated increase in welfare is provided mainly by working citizens (the share of wages increased by 1.0 percentage points), while the relative role of social benefits decreased by 1.5 percentage points, which indicates an increase in inequality. A structural conflict has been identified: fiscal stimulus is confronted with tight monetary policy, which leads to a suppression of consumption and an increase in forced savings. The BGB increased by 33% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025, reflecting cumulative inflationary pressures and complicating the way out of poverty. Conclusions. Well-being in recent years is the result of a difficult adjustment to shocks. The formal reduction of poverty is combined with the preservation of high-income differentiation, the growth of informal employment and the vulnerability of a significant part of the population. The sustainability of welfare depends on the ability of the state to resolve the structural conflict between fiscal stimulus and monetary restraint, as well as to ensure a more even distribution of benefits from economic activity.