Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zemlyanova E.V. Marriage Factor’s Role in Shaping Birth Rate in Moscow. City Healthñare. 2025;6(4-2):188-199. https: ...

Abstract

Background. Marriage is one of the main factors influencing fertility. The average number of children born varies significantly depending on marital status. The census data provides a unique opportunity to analyze the correlation between the distribution of the population by marital status and the average number ofchildren born (differentiated by age groups). For Moscow, such an analysis is possible based on data from 146 districts. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the marital status of the population on birth rates (including differentiated by birth order) in Moscow. Materials and methods. The study is based on 2020 census data on the distribution of the population by age, marital status, and the number of children born in Moscow districts. Correlation analysis was performed for 146 districts of Moscow. In addition, based on current statistics, the numbers of children born in marriage by duration of marriage in actual age groups by the year of marriage registration have been calculated and analyzed. Results. With a higher proportion of those married, women have a higher average number of children. It is not just the presence of marital relations that has a positive effect on birth rates, but the registration of marriage. This is evidenced by a significant inverse relationship between the proportion of married couples in unregistered marital relationships and birth rates. The dissolution of marriages has a negative impact on birth rates. The analysis showed a significant inverserelationship between the proportion of divorced and birth rates. In addition, according to the population census, a comparative analysis of birth rates in actual age groups separately for all and married women was carried out, which showed that married women in Moscow have a significantly higher average number ofchildren than all women, regardless of official marital status.