Semenov E.V. The lost experience of forecasting and strategic planning of science and technology development. Terra Economicus. 2026. Vol. 24. No. 1. Pp. 71-82 (in Russian).

Текст стати на сайте журнала URL: https://te.sfedu.ru/arkhiv-nomerov/2026/228-nomer-1/3069-utrachennyj-opyt-prognozirovaniya-i-strategicheskogo-planirovaniya-nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo-razvitiya.html (дата обращения 06.04.2026)

Abstract

Studying the case of the Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technical Progress (CP STP), the author examines the experience of scientific and technological forecasting and strategic planning of the 1970s and 1980s. The article highlights the practical utility of the CP STP for contemporary Russia. The features, advantages and disadvantages of the CP STP are indicated. The CP STP is an experience of independent strategic forecasting and planning of S&T development of a sovereign country. Such planning is based on a scientific understanding of the progressive development of national science and taking into account global trends and the real needs of the country. The CP STP is an experience of profound and science-grounded work performed by thousands of researchers in hundreds of organizations. The CP STP is a carefully calibrated and well-resourced project of technological modernization of the country, its transition from one technological condition to another. The CP STP is a mechanism of a real demand for science and of involving national S&T resources in the technological modernization of the country. At the same time, the CP STP is a rigid embedding of scientific and technological forecasting in directive administrative management, estrangement from society by means of the “For Official Use Only” (FOUO) designation at all stages – from preparation to application.