Simagin Yu.A., Maksimova I.V. Features of forecasting the population size in small towns for regional planning purposes. Paradigms of management, economics and law. 2026. Vol. 7. No. 1 (19). P. 127-141.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://paradigmy34.ru/issues/2026_01/Simagin_Maksimova.pdf (дата обращения 28.04.2026)

Abstract

Introduction. The introduction explains the relevance of research into population forecasting in small Russian towns. This section emphasizes the special status of small towns as a system-forming element of the regional economy; analyzes current population forecasting methods; and formulates the objective of the study, which is to assess the representativeness of forecasting methods for developing population forecasts, taking into account the specific characteristics of small towns. Methods. To achieve this objective, general scientific and specialized methods were used, including time series extrapolation and regression analysis. Analysis. The article presents the results of an assessment of the representativeness of various population forecasting methods using the city of Uryupinsk as an example. A forecast of the total population and economically active population of Uryupinsk through 2030 is developed. It is shown that the use of the extrapolation method for developing demographic forecasts in small towns allows for objectively anticipating labor force availability issues. Results. The study identified problems with population forecasting in small Russian towns. It was shown that the use of some forecasting methods is irrational due to the limited socioeconomic potential of small towns and the low variability of factor indicators.