Chernyshev K. (2026). Interregional migration ties in Russia: evidence from census place-of birth data. Demographic Review, 13(1), 22-43. https: ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://demreview.hse.ru/article/view/33715 (дата обращения 04.05.2026)

Abstract

This paper estimates interregional migration links in Russia using data from the population censuses of 1989, 2002, 2010, and 2021. The analysis focuses on lifetime migration, identified through discrepancies between individuals’ places of birth and places of residence. Particular attention is paid to data quality issues, especially those affecting the 2021 census. The study analyzes changes in the size of 5,112 interregional origin-destination migrant groups based on the 1989 and 2021 censuses, and 4,970 such groups based on the 2002 and 2010 censuses. Among the largest groups over the period 1989—2021, the most notable increases are observed for individuals born in Dagestan and residing in Stavropol Krai, as well as for those born in Rostov Oblast and residing in the Moscow region. Among geographically distant regions, a notably large origin-destination migrant group is observed between Bashkortostan and Tyumen Oblast. At the same time, previously large groups-such as individuals born in Tver Oblast and residing in Saint Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast, as well as those born in Kirov Oblast and residing in Sverdlovsk Oblast-are gradually declining. Interregional interactions are assessed using migration exchange effectiveness indices and net in-migration intensity measures. These measures are rarely applied in the analysis of lifetime migration. The results confirm a high intensity of migration between neighboring regions-most prominently in Central Russia and the North-West, as well as in Siberia and the Far East-and the dominance of the Moscow region as the principal destination for migrants. Among non-adjacent regions, the Far Eastern regions stand out for the increasing intensity of migration exchanges. Primorsky Krai is particularly notable as a major destination for individuals born in other parts of the Far East. Strong migration flows are also identified between Murmansk Oblast and other regions of North-West Russia. Large-scale out-migration from Magadan Oblast and Chukotka to the Central Black Earth regions has led to the formation of strong migration ties with Belgorod and Lipetsk Oblasts. The study demonstrates the potential of census data for analyzing long-term trends in population movement and shows that it is possible to quantify the intensity of interregional migration ties based on in-migration data, even in the presence of low-quality census data.