Rakhmonov A.Kh. Emigration from Tajikistan to Germany: trends and prospects of development. Bulletin of the Academy. 2026. No. 1. P. 56–72. https: ...

Abstract

This article examines the emerging phenomenon of emigration from Tajikistan to Germany as a new stage in Tajikistan’s migration history. Using a mixed-methods approach that includes analysis of OECD migration data and a sociological survey of Tajik youth in Germany, the study identifies key economic, linguistic, and sociopolitical drivers behind this trend. It also situates the discussion within the historical and institutional context of Tajikistan–Germany relations, including diplomatic, economic, and educational ties that have facilitated migration. Quantitative analysis shows that while Russia remains the dominant destination for Tajik labor migrants, Germany has become the leading “far-abroad” destination, with the number of Tajik migrants in Germany now surpassing those in regional alternatives like Kazakhstan. The article further evaluates the channels of entry to Germany – such as educational scholarships, vocational training, volunteer programs, and recruitment agencies – and their usage rates. It assesses the flow of remittances from Germany to Tajikistan, which remains modest but growing, and discusses macroeconomic effects on Tajikistan’s economy. A critical review of recent changes in German immigration policy (notably the 2020 Skilled Workers Immigration Act and 2023 reforms introducing an “opportunity card”) is provided, highlighting their potential to attract both high-skilled and low-skilled workers from countries like Tajikistan. The findings indicate that higher earnings potential, and stronger legal protections in Germany are significant pull factors, while economic hardship and restrictive policies in traditional destinations push Tajik migrants to seek new horizons.