Yudina T.N. Factorial Architecture of Migration Flows in the Post-Soviet Space: From Integration to Turbulence (2000-2025). PolitBook. 2026. No. 2. Pp. 22-44. DOI: 10.24412 ...

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Abstract

Since the 1990s, a relatively coherent Eurasian migration system has formed in the Post-Soviet space, dominated by intra-regional flows and characterized by strong interdependence between sending and receiving countries. In 2000—2025 this system evolved under alternating phases of integration and geopolitical turbulence, which affected the scale, structure and direction of migration flows. The aim of the study is to reconstruct the factor architecture of migration flows in the post-Soviet countries in 2000—2025 based on official data of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS and the author’s periodization of the transition from integration to turbulence. The study relies on secondary analysis of official statistics on international migration in the CIS countries, presented in annual CISSTAT publications, using a comparative-dynamic approach to assessing arrival, departure and net migration indicators for the region as a whole. The factors shaping the dynamics of migration flows are structured into four blocks: demographic, economic, institutional-legal and geopolitical, which makes it possible to view migration as the outcome of a complex interaction of multi-level determinants. The analysis shows that in the first phase of the period under review, associated with post-crisis recovery and the strengthening of integration interactions, international migration within the CIS contributed to partially offsetting natural population decline in a number of countries and to strengthening their labour potential. In subsequent years, as integration formats were institutionally consolidated and economic and demographic asymmetries deepened, migration attraction became increasingly concentrated in a few centres, while the high share of intra-regional movements persisted. Geopolitical crises of the mid-2010s, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the events of 2022, transformed migration routes, leading to a temporary contraction of international migration, greater uncertainty for migrants and rising demographic risks for receiving countries. Migration flows in the post-Soviet countries in 2000—2025 are shaped by a combination of demographic, economic, institutional-legal and geopolitical factors, while growing turbulence turns migration simultaneously into a resource of demographic resilience and an area of heightened socio-political vulnerability. Clarifying the factor architecture of migration flows and aligning it with the author’s periodization of integration and turbulence phases creates a basis for developing a more coherent migration and demographic policy in the region.