Volkova, O. A. Social and Demographic Divergence in the Post-Soviet Space: Conceptualization Based on the Analysis of Social and Demographic Indicators. PolitBook. 2026. No. 2. Pp. 83-94. DOI 10.24412 ...

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the dynamics of key socio-demographic indicators of birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, and migration in 2014—2024 in the CIS countries. The study conceptualizes the concept of socio-demographic divergence in relation to the Post-Soviet region: it is interpreted as a persistent divergence in the levels and trends of demographic development between the European, Transcaucasian, and Central Asian subsystems. The study is based on data from the CIS Interstate Statistical Committee and national statistical agencies. The study uses comparative and retrospective analysis, statistical description, and cross-country comparison of indicator dynamics. On this basis, the concept of socio-demographic divergence is operationalized through a system of quantitative indicators, which allows for the integration of the results of disparate national and indicator studies into a unified analytical framework. It is shown that the Central Asian states maintain the inertia of socio-demographic growth during the period under consideration, while European countries face a systemic crisis of depopulation and aging, which is partially compensated by migration, while the South Caucasus occupies an intermediate position, gradually approaching the European model of reduced reproduction. The results obtained clarify the conceptual framework for analyzing demographic processes in the Post-Soviet space and can be used in the development of differentiated demographic policies at the interstate and regional levels.