Vartanova M.L. Cluster analysis of food security in Russia, taking into account demographic profiles of regions. Regionology. 2026. Vol. 34. No. 2 (135). Pp. 305-327.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/2413-1407/article/view/280865 (дата обращения 29.06.2026)

Abstract

Introduction. Food security is the main indicator of the socio-economic development of Russia's regions. In the context of interregional differentiation, the role of defining stable typological groups of territories is increasing, taking into account not only agrarian and economic, but also demographic characteristics. The purpose of the study is to identify systemic links between demographic, economic parameters and the level of food supply, followed by the development of an empirical typology of the subjects of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods. Based on data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Agriculture (2014—2022) by methods k-means and hierarchical clustering (Ward's method) implemented the grouping of regions. An integral indicator has been applied, calculated on the basis of private indicators of nutritional adequacy, stability of the food ecosystem, food availability and food safety. To identify homogeneous groups of regions, cluster analysis was used, taking into account the demographic profiles of the territories. The results of the study. A stable typology of regions has been found, forming a hierarchy from suppliers with high agricultural potential to consumers dependent on external resources. Four clusters have been identified. Only one region (the Republic of Bashkortostan) has a high level of food security (integral indicator 0.83), five (Belgorod Region, Krasnodar Territory, Republic of Tatarstan, Voronezh and Rostov regions) – average; seven regions (Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol and Altai Territories, Kursk, Saratov, Novosibirsk and Omsk regions) – low. No regions with a critical level have been identified. In 2014—2022, the integral indicator increased, for example, in the Krasnodar Territory from 0.64 to 0.74. A substantial empirical typology of the subjects of the Russian Federation is proposed and a differentiated approach to management is substantiated. Conclusion. The leading factors determining the place of subjects in the hierarchy of food security have been identified. A set of targeted management recommendations has been developed for each group of territories (leading subjects, balanced regions, low-stability zones, urban agglomerations) aimed at ensuring self-sufficiency, import substitution and the development of the agro-industrial complex, taking into account demographic characteristics. The results obtained confirm that the demographic profiles of regions are a significant factor in the empirical typology of food security. The use of the cluster approach makes it possible to more accurately identify spatial differentiation and can be used in the development of regional food security policy. Introduction. Food security is the main indicator of the socio-economic development of Russia's regions. In the context of interregional differentiation, the role of defining stable typological groups of territories is increasing, taking into account not only agrarian and economic, but also demographic characteristics. The purpose of the study is to identify systemic links between demographic, economic parameters and the level of food supply, followed by the development of an empirical typology of the subjects of the Russian Federation.Materials and methods. Based on data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Agriculture (2014—2022) by methodsk-means and hierarchical clustering (Ward's method) implemented the grouping of regions. An integral indicator has been applied, calculated on the basis of private indicators of nutritional adequacy, stability of the food ecosystem, food availability and food safety. To identify homogeneous groups of regions, cluster analysis was used, taking into account the demographic profiles of the territories.The results of the study. A stable typology of regions has been found, forming a hierarchy from suppliers with high agricultural potential to consumers dependent on external resources. Four clusters have been identified. Only one region (the Republic of Bashkortostan) has a high level of food security (integral indicator 0.83), five (Belgorod Region, Krasnodar Territory, Republic of Tatarstan, Voronezh and Rostov regions) – average; seven regions (Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol and Altai Territories, Kursk, Saratov, Novosibirsk and Omsk regions) – low. No regions with a critical level have been identified. In 2014—2022, the integral indicator increased, for example, in the Krasnodar Territory from 0.64 to 0.74. A substantial empirical typology of the subjects of the Russian Federation is proposed and a differentiated approach to management is substantiated.Conclusion. The leading factors determining the place of subjects in the hierarchy of food security have been identified. A set of targeted management recommendations has been developed for each group of territories (leading subjects, balanced regions, low-stability zones, urban agglomerations) aimed at ensuring self-sufficiency, import substitution and the development of the agro-industrial complex, taking into account demographic characteristics. The results obtained confirm that the demographic profiles of regions are a significant factor in the empirical typology of food security. The use of the cluster approach makes it possible to more accurately identify spatial differentiation and can be used in the development of regional food security policy.