Vazirov Z.K., Pismennaya E.E., Garibova F.M., Ryazantsev N.S. Migration processes in Russia: The regional aspect of the new migration policy. Voprosy Politologii. 2026. Vol. 16. No. 6 (130). Pp. 2102-2122. DOI 10.35775 ...

Abstract

This article examines the current stage of transformation in the Russian Federa- tion's migration policy based on a comprehensive analysis of official statistical data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Rosstat, regulatory legal acts from 2025—2026, a full content analysis of the «Migration Post» Telegram channel (September 2024 – February 2026), and data from the global «World Migration Report 2024» (IOM). The subject of the study is migration processes viewed through a regional lens. The aim of the work is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of state migration poli- cy and its impact on the regional differentiation of migration flows. The study’s hypothe- sis posits that the new migration policy is shaping a model of selective containment characterized by pronounced regional asymmetry, a trend that aligns with the global rise in «migration inequality.» The study utilized official statistical reports from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (2023—2025), regulatory acts from 2025—2026, a comprehen- sive content analysis of the «Migration Post» Telegram channel, a registry of regional bans (covering 48 constituent entities of the Russian Federation), and global data from the IOM (including UN estimates and data from the UNHCR and the World Bank). The methodology employed a comparative analysis of time series, an index method (calculat- ing the selectivity coefficient), institutional analysis, and the mapping of regional dispari- ties. Results: A contraction in long-term legalization statuses was observed – the issuance of temporary residence permits fell 3.6-fold, residence permits 2.1-fold, and grants of citizenship 3.2-fold (dropping from 378.5 thousand in 2023 to approximately 120 thou- sand in 2026). Concurrently, there was a recorded rise in administrative expulsions (reaching 185 thousand in 2026) and an increase in work patent notifications (to 2.5 million). The selectivity coefficient reached a value of –2.3. It was established that at least 48 regions have implemented sectoral bans on patent-based employment, with the strictest limitations found in Krasnodar Krai (covering 85 types of economic activity). Paradoxi- cally, the quota for visa-required migrants for 2026 was increased by 19% (to 278.9 thousand), aligning with the global trend of mobility polarization. The study’s scientific contribution lies in systematizing regional migration policy instruments and identifying the contradiction between declared regionalization and the actual fragmentation of regulation. A new indicator – the selectivity coefficient – was introduced to characterize the stringency of migration policy. A dual-track model has emerged: the visa-based segment is expanding, while the work-patent segment is becoming marginalized. These findings can be applied to improve regional migration policy and develop compensatory mecha- nisms for border regions. A limitation of the study is the lack of monthly statistics for certain indicators across Russian regions. Future research directions include assessing the economic effectiveness of regional bans and analyzing integration practices in pilot regions.