Kashepov A.V. The labor resource balance of the Russian Federation for the period 2026–2028. Economic and Social Problems of Russia. 2026. No. 3 (67). Pp. 11-30.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://espr-journal.ru/archives/5704 (дата обращения 05.10.2026)

Abstract

The article examines the methodology for forming a labor resource balance and its application in developing a new version of the forecast for the employment of the population of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2028. The forecast is based on considering the macro labor market as a system built on two groups of factors — economic and demographic. Economic factors determine the demand for labor, while demographic factors determine the supply of labor. It is noted that all characteristics of the socio‑economic situation in the Russian Federation in the period 2026–2028 are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the completion of the transition to the new retirement age, against the backdrop of the age and gender structure that has developed in recent years, makes it possible to calculate the estimated population of working age in the country for 2028. The currently available information on demographic and economic processes makes it possible to forecast a small and gradual increase in unemployment, without sharp spikes, in the period up to 2028. The continuation of the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions restrictions will slow down the demand for labour in some sectors of the Russian economy and stimulate it in others. A possible end to the conflict will trigger an economic conversion and a redistribution of employment from the defense sector to the civilian sector. The results obtained can be used to clarify the socio‑economic situation in the country, and the methodology for developing a labor resource balance can be used to forecast employment in the Russian Federation and its regions for other periods.

Content (in russ)