Vasileva E.N., Vasiliev E.S. Determinants of birth rate dynamics in the Republic of Crimea and directions of demographic growth. Social'no-gumanitarnye znaniya. 2026. No. 8. Pp. 103-107.

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Abstract

This article analyzes fertility dynamics in the Republic of Crimea based on official statistics. The objective of the study is to identify key determinants of reproductive behavior and assess structural shifts in birth order to substantiate the priorities of regional family and demographic policy. The methodology includes a correlation analysis of time series of the total fertility rate, age-specific rates, the number of women of reproductive age, marriage and divorce rates, and the population’s debt burden. A steady decline in the fertility rate, especially in rural areas, is established, against the backdrop of an increase in the average age of mothers at first and second births. Inverse relationships are identified between the number of first and second births, on the one hand, and divorce rates and the debt burden on housing loans, on the other. The structural increase in the share of third and subsequent births does not compensate for the absolute decline in the first two birth orders. The study concludes that it is necessary to strengthen regional policies aimed at supporting motherhood, preventing divorce, reducing the financial burden on young families, and supporting rural residents. The study’s findings can be used to adjust demographic strategies at the regional level.