Vartanova M.L., Nguyen Hai Nam. The role of natural population movement in the process of forming the demographic structure of Russian regions. Regional problems of economic transformation. 2026. No. 8 (190). Pp. 226-241.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://www.rppe.ru/index.php/rppe/article/view/3421 (дата обращения 20.10.2026)

Abstract

This article examines the impact of natural population dynamics on the dynamics of the population size in the Russian Federation. Based on an analysis of graphical materials reflecting indicators of birth rates, death rates, and natural population growth (decline), the thesis is confirmed that, in modern conditions, it is natural processes that are the determining factor in changing the demographic situation in the country. It has been established that over a long period, Russia has experienced a steady decline in the birth rate coupled with consistently high mortality rates, which has led to a pronounced natural population decline. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the impact of structural shifts, socio‑economic factors, and age‑sex structure on population reproduction processes. The authors conclude that natural population movement is a determining factor in long‑term demographic dynamics. Given the predominance of negative trends, population size becomes more dependent on migration flows and the effectiveness of state policy. Summarizing the results of the study, it should be noted that the impact of natural population movement during the period from 2010 to 2023 was contradictory: despite the positive contribution of individual regions, the overall national trend showed a decline. This circumstance necessitates a shift in demographic policy from compensatory measures to a long‑term strategy for strengthening the reproductive and health‑preserving potential of the population, taking into account the regional specifics of the federal districts. The data obtained can be integrated into the processes of forecasting and developing strategies for demographic regulation in Russia.