Bezverbny V.A. (2026). Demographic development trends of municipalities and settlements of Russia in the intercensal period 1989–2021. Social area, 12(3). DOI: 10.15838 ...

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: http://socialarea-journal.ru/article/30731 (дата обращения 20.10.2026)

Abstract

Demographic divergence calls for analysis at the settlement level. The study examines Russian population change in 1989–2021 by initial settlement size and proximity to major cities. The analysis uses an original database of 169,811 settlements containing information from four population censuses. The study uses size and distance groupings, median and aggregate changes, regional k-means clustering, and global and local Moran statistics. The contribution is a joint analysis of settlement size and spatial context. In the database, the number of settlements with a non-zero population fell from 157,165 to 131,021. The share of the twenty largest cities in the recorded population increased from 21.0% to 25.0%. Median population change was −76.0% for settlements initially below 100 inhabitants and +6.4% for cities exceeding one million inhabitants. The size gradient was not monotonic and varied with distance. Aggregate growth within 30 km of a million-plus city reached 23.0%, whereas median decline in the 200–400 km belt reached 67.5%. Positive Moran statistics indicate spatial association. The findings support joint analysis of size and location without establishing causal effects. Limitations concern census comparability, administrative changes, and differences between recorded and actual population. Further research requires consistent boundaries and spatial regression models. The findings can inform territorial priorities in demographic policy and social infrastructure planning