Moiseeva E. M. Methodological problems of quantitative estimates and forecasts of climate migration

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vestnik.npi-tu.ru/index.php/vestnikSRSTU/article/view/1446 (дата обращения 14.12.2021)

Abstract

The purpose of the study. The article is dedicated to a review and critical analysis of the currently existing quantitative estimates and forecasts of climate migration, as well as the methodological approaches which produced them. The methodological basis of the study. The study considers databases of primary and secondary statistical data on climate migration, as well as bibliographic databases, research papers, monographs and reports on this issue. For their analysis, standard general scientific methods are applied in order to obtain a qualitative assessment of the advantages and disadvantages, prospects and limitations of the available empirical data, as well as methods of their collection and processing, including for making forecasts. The results of the study. The article reveals the features of climate migration and its statistical accounting, which make it difficult to obtain an objective picture of the scales and directions of such migration flows based on empirical data. The authors outline the strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches to the indirect quantitative estimates of climate migration and its forecasts. The prospects for further research. The analysis showed that in order to improve the assessments of climate migration, it is necessary, on the one hand, to further develop the systems and methods for collecting primary statistical data and, on the other hand, to apply complex methods of its study, since none of the currently existing approaches is free from their shortcomings. The most promising areas for work in this direction are identified.