Ledeneva V.Yu. Climatic migration: trends and forecasts. Izvestia Yugo-Western State University. Series: Economics. Sociology. Management. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 6. Pp. 233–242. https: ...

Текст статьи/выпуска на сайте журнала URL: https://swsu.ru/izvestiya/serieseconom/archiv/6_2021.pdfhttps://swsu.ru/izvestiya/serieseconom/archiv/6_2021.pdf (дата обращения 13.01.2022)

Abstract

Relevance. The article examines the problems of climate migration, which in recent years are increasingly included in the real agenda of political action in different countries. The topic is relevant for the countries most affected by climate change and experiencing an intense impact on infrastructure, water and agricultural resources. Climate migration is a scenario for the near future. Negotiations under the 2016 Paris Climate Agreements have highlighted the divisions of the world's leading powers in tackling climate issues. International consensus is unlikely to be reached anytime soon. The purpose of the study: to identify the causes, trends and predictions of climate migration. Research objectives: to analyze the main factors affecting climate migration, to carry out a comparative analysis of developing and developed countries in the context of the set goal, to show possible scenarios for the development of climate migration. The research methodology is based on naturalistic concepts of the 19th - early 20th centuries. A comprehensive study of the problem includes an analysis of modern scientific literature of Russian and foreign scientists, various sources on migration, individual case studies, statistical data, reports of international governments and organizations. Methodological problems caused by the uncertainty of scientific and managerial approaches are identified: an international legal basis for climate migration has not been created, there is no common understanding of this phenomenon, terminology has not been developed, the question remains debatable: should climate migrants be considered refugees? Results: identified the main climatic risks and their impact on the intensity and direction of climate migration. An attempt is made to determine the key role of climatic factors in the decision to migrate. Possible scenarios for the development of climatic migration are presented. Conclusions: The results of the study can summarize the main lessons learned from the evidence for management decisions and the development of government programs to legalize and regulate climate migration