Institute of Sociology
of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology
of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Vartanova M.L. The Eurasian Economic Union: dynamics and trends of economic development in conditions of growing macroeconomic uncertainty. In: Greater Eurasia: Development, security, cooperation. Yearbook. Issue 5. Part 1 ...



Vartanova M.L. The Eurasian Economic Union: dynamics and trends of economic development in conditions of growing macroeconomic uncertainty. In: Greater Eurasia: Development, security, cooperation. Yearbook. Issue 5. Part 1 / RAN. INION. Scientific department. cooperation; Ed. V.I. Gerasimov. – M., 2022. P. 382-385.
ISBN 978-5-248-01021-9
DOI нет

Posted on site: 10.02.22

Текст статьи/сборника на сайте конференции URL: http://ukros.ru/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/БЕ_2022_Вып_5_ч_1_25_января.pdf (дата обращения 10.02.2022)


Abstract

In the context of a sharp decline in economic activity, job losses and the risk of a deep economic crisis, central banks have taken certain measures to ease monetary policy: key interest rates have been lowered, prudential and macroprudential regulation measures have been temporarily relaxed. At the same time, the decline in key interest rates was restrained, and the duration of the reduction cycle is short. The main factors of macroeconomic uncertainty for the EAEU member states are the threats of the global financial crisis, trade wars between the largest states, new sanctions, volatility of commodity prices, increasing inflationary pressure, as well as internal risks of tightening monetary policy, volatility of national currencies, as well as the growth of budget deficits and debt of the public administration sector (SSU). The implementation of measures to support the economies has led to a deterioration of budget balances and an increase in debt, which is becoming critical for Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Dependence on external creditors and their propensity to restructure debts is increasing, and the issue of fiscal sustainability is becoming more acute. For Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, there is a risk of a longer recovery of remittances due to continuing restrictions on labor mobility. In the context of a sharp decline in economic activity, job losses and the risk of a deep economic crisis, central banks have taken certain measures to ease monetary policy: key interest rates have been lowered, prudential and macroprudential regulation measures have been temporarily relaxed. At the same time, the decline in key interest rates was restrained, and the duration ofthe reduction cycle is short. The main factors of macroeconomic uncertainty for the EAEU member states are the threats of the global financial crisis, trade wars between the largest states, new sanctions, volatility of commodity prices, increasing inflationary pressure, as well as internal risks of tightening monetary policy, volatility of national currencies, as well as the growth of budget deficits anddebt of the public administration sector (SSU). The implementation of measures to support the economies has led to a deterioration of budget balances and an increase in debt, which is becoming critical for Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Dependence on external creditors and their propensity to restructure debts is increasing, and the issue of fiscal sustainability is becoming more acute. For Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, there is a risk of a longer recovery of remittances due to continuing restrictions on labor mobility.