Arkhangelskiy V.N. Fertility in the Tyumen region: dynamics, age pattern, regional differences. CITISE. 2022. No. 3. Pp. 54-69.

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Abstract

The article analyzes changes in the birth rate in the Tyumen region (without autonomous districts) over the past decade. Particular attention is paid to the significant differentiation in the dynamics of the total fertility rate by birth order and its determinacy. While the total fertility rate for third and subsequent births increases almost annually, the value of this indicator for first and second births is probably affected by timing shifts. The decline in the total fertility rate for first births appears to be due in large part to their postponement due to postponed marriages. By contrast, second births in 2014-2016 probably occurred earlier in some families in anticipation of the original deadline for completion of the federal maternity (family) capital program (late 2016). After that, a timing lapse is inevitable, causing a decline in the total fertility rate for second births. It is overcome as generations unaffected by the timing shifts reach the age of active second births. To analyze regional differences, we use the calculated total fertility rate by urban districts and municipal districts for 2013-2020. In contrast to the total fertility rate, it makes it possible to compare the level of fertility, eliminating the influence of the sex and age structure of the population. The analysis of the age model of fertility is based both on age-specific fertility rates and on the average age of the mother at birth (including by urban districts and municipal areas).