Volkov Yu.G., Pechkurov I.V., Panteleev V.G. Migration flows of the Rostov region in the context of the СOVID-19 pandemic. Vestnik Yuzhno-Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta (Novocherkasskogo politekhnicheskogo instituta). Seriya: Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie nauki, 2020, Vol. 13, No 5, pp. 21-32.

Текст статьи на сайте журнала URL: https://vestnik.npi-tu.ru/index.php/vestnikSRSTU/article/view/821 (дата обращения 13.12.2020)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to identify the features of the behavior of migration flows in the Rostov region — intraregional, interregional and international-in conditions of restricted movement of people due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, it reveals how much migration flows can recover after the easing of restrictions on movement, that is, their stability.The methodological basis of the study is, firstly, the observation of changes in statistical series that characterize the dynamics of intraregional, interregional and international migration flows in the Rostov region; secondly, comparative statistics of statistical series in different time periods (annual and monthly), which allows us to identify the relative norm of migration flows and deviations from the norm during the period of restriction of movement of people; third, recording in the observation of changes in statistical series under the influence of a factor and thus determining whether the factor affects the dynamics of the statistical series or not.Research result. First, it was found that the intraregional migration flow shows a greater sensitivity to the influence of the factor of restricting the movement of people, its volume has decreased; however, it has shown a high degree of reactivation after the easing of restrictions. This did not affect the migration growth of the region due to the peculiarities of intraregional movements. Secondly, it was found that the interregional migration flow is also sensitive to the influence of the factor of restricting the movement of people and at the same time showed a high degree of renewal after the restrictions were eased; also, in the context of the pandemic, a decrease in the intensity of this migration flow reduced the outflow of residents of the Rostov region to other regions. Third, it was found that the international migration flow showed the same properties for those arriving in the region, but these properties did not show up for those leaving the region abroad; the restriction factor had little effect on the decrease in growth due to international migrants. Thus, the migration flows of the Rostov region have experienced a real impact of restrictive measures and at the same time have demonstrated their stability and resiliency after the weakening of the limiting factor.The research perspective is further scientific observation of changes in migration flows at the regional level and the impact of the factor of limiting the movement of people due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the end of the pandemic is poorly predicted, it is likely that restrictive measures will be introduced more than once, so it is important to have the results of observations of the behavior of migration flows in the first period of restrictions, then in the second, third, and so on in order to identify the long-term effect of restrictive measures on the behavior of migration flows at the regional level.